Home / MLB Projections MLB / Angels @ Astros LAA @ HOU

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

63-72  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Aug 31 • 2:10 PM ET
Daikin Park
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

75-61  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Oswald Peraza
STARTING PITCHER

Oswald Peraza

#2 | Second Base
@
AJ Blubaugh
STARTING PITCHER

AJ Blubaugh

#69 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Oswald Peraza None-None -- -- -- --
AJ Blubaugh None-None 3.86 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.86
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ANGELS
42%
📊
ASTROS
58%
ANGELS --
ASTROS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Los Angeles)
AngelsLAA (-3.5) 0 AstrosHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Angels Cover

57.5%

Astros Cover

42.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.4%

LAA By 3-4 runs

15.7%

HOU By 1-2 runs

16.9%

HOU By 3-4 runs

11.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.55
LOS ANGELES
2.79
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
3
LOS ANGELES
5
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Angels Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Astros Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Angels (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim Astros (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 LAA @ HOU 18 - 3
Aug 19, 2026 LAA @ HOU 2 - 3
Aug 18, 2026 LAA @ HOU 3 - 1
Jul 29, 2026 HOU @ LAA 7 - 4
Jul 28, 2026 HOU @ LAA 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAA
vs
Houston HOU
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.04 ▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.310 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.369 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.679 ▲
OPS
.582
154 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +97.4% more
Los Angeles: 154.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +25.7% more
Los Angeles: 4.0 vs Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Los Angeles: 0.6 vs Houston: 0.5
OPS (Season) +9.7%
Los Angeles: 67.9% vs Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAA Score 3.6 3
HOU Score 2.8 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 5.3 2.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.7 / 5.5 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.8 / 9.3 3.0 / 11.0
Walks 5.0 / 3.6 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
37%MONEY63%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
HOU Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LAA
HOU
LAA
ML
50% 81-82
59% 96-66
47% 77-87
55% 89-73
ATS
56% 91-72
60% 97-65
55% 90-74
51% 82-80
TTL
45% 70-84-9
53% 83-74-5
45% 69-86-9
52% 82-75-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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