ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
61-75 | Road
3
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
79-57 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.81 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.81
ERA
Ldr 3.38
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
37%
PHILLIES
63%
BRAVES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATL By 1-2 runs
12.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
6.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.2%
PHI By 3-4 runs
19.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.17
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
7.59
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.757
▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.6
vs
Atlanta: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+10.9% more
Philadelphia: 15.2
vs
Atlanta: 13.7
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Atlanta: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.2
3
PHI Score
7.6
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.2
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 7.7
10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 13.7
10.0 / 9.0
Walks
1.8 / 2.7
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
97-67
46%
77-90
49%
80-84
54%
90-78
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
96-71
51%
83-81
52%
87-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-76-9
49%
76-80-11
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