PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
60-76 | Road
10
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
75-61 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yohan Ramirez
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohan Ramirez | None-None | 6.29 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 2.98 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.29
ERA
Ldr 2.98
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
39%
RED SOX
61%
PIRATES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
78%
Under 0
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
PIT By 1-2 runs
17.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
11.4%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
15.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.61
PITTSBURGH
Boston
4.34
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
BOS @ PIT
3 - 8
Aug 15, 2026
BOS @ PIT
4 - 0
Aug 14, 2026
BOS @ PIT
4 - 8
Aug 31, 2025
PIT @ BOS
2 - 5
Aug 30, 2025
PIT @ BOS
10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.734
▲
OPS
.409
186
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+87.0% more
Boston: 1.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+14.3% more
Boston: 2.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 2.3
Total Bases (L5)
+13.0% more
Boston: 13.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 12.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.5% more
Boston: 10.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.6
10
BOS Score
4.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.9
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.7
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.6
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 9.2
9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 12.2
12.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.6 / 2.3
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PIT
BOS
PIT
ML
50%
80-80
52%
82-77
47%
76-87
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-67
54%
86-73
48%
79-84
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
72-81-6
47%
74-83-6
50%
79-78-6
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