ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
61-74 | Road
2
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
78-57 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Dodd
#46 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Dodd | None-None | 3.42 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.98 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.42
ERA
Ldr 1.98
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
38%
PHILLIES
62%
BRAVES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATL By 1-2 runs
9.7%
ATL By 3-4 runs
4.8%
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.9%
PHI By 3-4 runs
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4.87
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
8.18
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.3
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 13.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.757
▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+84.2% more
Philadelphia: 7.5
vs
Atlanta: 4.1
Home Runs (L5)
+42.6% more
Philadelphia: 1.8
vs
Atlanta: 1.3
Total Bases (L5)
+14.8% more
Philadelphia: 17.3
vs
Atlanta: 15.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.9
2
PHI Score
8.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 9.3
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.3
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 4.1
10.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
17.3 / 15.0
11.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.1
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
97-67
46%
77-90
49%
80-84
54%
90-78
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
96-71
51%
83-81
52%
87-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-76-9
49%
76-80-11
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