Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Reds STL @ CIN

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

67-69  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

68-67  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Leahy
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Leahy

#62 | Starting Pitcher
@
Andrew Abbott
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Abbott

#41 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Leahy None-None 2.97 -- 1.1 --
Andrew Abbott None-None 2.65 -- 5.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
2.97 ERA Ldr 2.65
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
49%
📊
REDS
51%
CARDINALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Cincinnati)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

41.6%

Reds Cover

58.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

STL By 1-2 runs

16.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

11.1%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.85
ST. LOUIS
4.7
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 STL @ CIN 10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026 STL @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026 STL @ CIN 3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026 STL @ CIN 2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026 CIN @ STL 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.691
OPS
▲ .699
167
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +125.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.6 vs St. Louis: 0.4
Home Runs (Season) +27.5% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs St. Louis: 167.0
Home Runs (L5) +26.7% more
Cincinnati: 1.5 vs St. Louis: 1.2
Hits (L5) +17.2% more
Cincinnati: 8.4 vs St. Louis: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.9 4
CIN Score 4.7 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 7.2 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 10.2 12.0 / 0.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 12.6 13.0 / 14.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.5 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55% 88-71
53% 85-74
49% 79-81
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 89-70
50% 80-80
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 81-73-5
46% 68-81-10
54% 83-72-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 38 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 45 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 51 minutes ago
Dodgers Embrace 'Dinosaur' Label While Trolling Padres After NLD…
headtopics 18 hours, 55 minutes ago
Padres' Bullpen Boosted for Game 4 as Miller Returns, King Avail…
si 1 day ago