Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Twins SD @ MIN

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

75-60  |  Road

12
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

61-73  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jeremiah Estrada
STARTING PITCHER

Jeremiah Estrada

#56 | RP
@
Taj Bradley
STARTING PITCHER

Taj Bradley

#26 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeremiah Estrada None-None 3.08 -- 1.0 1
Taj Bradley None-None 4.82 -- 5.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
3.08 Ldr ERA 4.82
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
60%
📊
TWINS
40%
PADRES --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Minnesota)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

38.6%

Twins Cover

61.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

SD By 1-2 runs

15.9%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.2%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.82
SAN DIEGO
4.98
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Loss
40% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Twins (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 MIN @ SD 1 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 MIN @ SD 5 - 7
Aug 21, 2026 MIN @ SD 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2025 SD @ MIN 2 - 7
Aug 30, 2025 SD @ MIN 12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Minnesota MIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.925 ▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4575.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +138.0% more
Minnesota: 2.1 vs San Diego: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +39.2% more
Minnesota: 17.5 vs San Diego: 12.6
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
Minnesota: 1.0 vs San Diego: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.8 12
MIN Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.9 / 8.8 5.0 / 14.0
Home Runs 2.1 / 0.7 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 6.5 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 17.5 / 12.6 8.0 / 24.0
Walks 3.1 / 4.5 7.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
89%MONEY11%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SD
MIN
SD
ML
52% 84-78
51% 85-83
50% 80-81
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 95-67
54% 91-77
59% 95-66
55% 92-75
TTL
51% 78-75-9
51% 82-80-6
53% 80-72-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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