Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ White Sox NYY @ CHW

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

75-60  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

48-87  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Grant Taylor
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Taylor

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 2.45 -- 2.0 1
Grant Taylor None-None 6.28 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 Ldr ERA 6.28
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
69%
📊
WHITE SOX
31%
YANKEES --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (New York)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

73.8%

White Sox Cover

26.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.1%

NYY By 3-4 runs

19.2%

CHW By 1-2 runs

11.9%

CHW By 3-4 runs

6.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6.55
NEW YORK
4
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
B
Sim White Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.6
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 30, 2026 NYY @ CHW 1 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 NYY @ CHW 5 - 6
Jul 28, 2026 NYY @ CHW 3 - 2
Jul 27, 2026 NYY @ CHW 9 - 5
Jun 18, 2026 CHW @ NYY 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Chicago CHW
1
Games Played
1
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
6.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.324
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.415
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
1.041 ▲
OPS
.826
2 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +73.3% more
New York: 2.9 vs Chicago: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +36.3% more
New York: 19.2 vs Chicago: 12.2
Runs per Game (Season) +33.3% more
New York: 9.0 vs Chicago: 6.0
OPS (Season) +21.5%
New York: 1.0% vs Chicago: 82.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 6.6 5
CHW Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.2 / 9.3 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 2.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 8.6 11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 19.2 11.0 / 15.0
Walks 5.1 / 3.1 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
97%MONEY3%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
NYY
CHW
NYY
ML
49% 81-86
47% 76-85
56% 94-73
52% 85-77
ATS
59% 99-68
59% 95-66
56% 93-74
53% 86-76
TTL
58% 96-69-2
53% 81-73-7
51% 84-81-2
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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