SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
72-63 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
67-66 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.12 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.97 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.12 Ldr
ERA
2.97
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
53%
GUARDIANS
47%
MARINERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.2%
SEA By 3-4 runs
15.2%
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
4.19
SEATTLE
Cleveland
3.6
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mariners (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
SEA @ CLE
5 - 6
Jun 27, 2026
SEA @ CLE
3 - 4
Jun 26, 2026
SEA @ CLE
3 - 1
Mar 29, 2026
CLE @ SEA
0 - 8
Mar 28, 2026
CLE @ SEA
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.380
.693
OPS
▲
.696
182
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+65.0% more
Seattle: 0.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+33.1% more
Seattle: 1.4
vs
Cleveland: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+29.3% more
Seattle: 14.3
vs
Cleveland: 10.1
Hits (L5)
+24.4% more
Seattle: 8.6
vs
Cleveland: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
4.2
3
CLE Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.5 / 8.6
5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 8.7
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 14.3
8.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.9 / 2.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SEA
CLE
SEA
ML
54%
87-75
50%
81-81
49%
80-83
52%
85-77
ATS
57%
93-69
60%
98-64
58%
95-68
59%
95-67
TTL
56%
89-71-2
56%
85-67-10
44%
70-90-2
53%
81-71-10
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