Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Reds STL @ CIN

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

66-69  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 6:40 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

68-66  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Emilio Pagan
STARTING PITCHER

Emilio Pagan

#15 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 2.12 -- 1.1 3
Emilio Pagan None-None 2.93 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.12 Ldr ERA 2.93
-- WHIP --
1.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
48%
📊
REDS
52%
CARDINALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
0.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

50.4%

Reds Cover

49.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL 0.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

18.5%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.7%

CIN By 1-2 runs

18.4%

CIN By 3-4 runs

13.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.17
ST. LOUIS
4.13
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: 0.0
C
Sim Reds (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 STL @ CIN 10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026 STL @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026 STL @ CIN 3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026 STL @ CIN 2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026 CIN @ STL 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .394
.691
OPS
▲ .699
167
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +7.4% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season) +1.0%
St. Louis: 23.9% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.8%
St. Louis: 31.3% vs Cincinnati: 30.5%
Errors (L5) +38.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.2 7
CIN Score 4.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 6.3 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.8 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.0 / 9.3 6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 9.9 24.0 / 18.0
Walks 3.8 / 3.7 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
STL
CIN
STL
ML
55% 88-71
53% 85-74
49% 79-81
52% 84-77
ATS
54% 86-73
56% 89-70
50% 80-80
53% 85-76
TTL
53% 81-73-5
46% 68-81-10
54% 83-72-5
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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