ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
61-73 | Road
1
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
77-57 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 3.49 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 2.02 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.49
ERA
Ldr 2.02
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
38%
PHILLIES
62%
BRAVES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.9
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.9 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.9%
ATL By 3-4 runs
8.1%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
18.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
5.5
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
7.39
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.9
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 1, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026
PHI @ ATL
4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026
PHI @ ATL
3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026
PHI @ ATL
9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026
PHI @ ATL
2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
1
Games Played
▲
2
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.757
▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+79.2% more
Philadelphia: 8.2
vs
Atlanta: 4.6
Total Bases (L5)
+52.2% more
Philadelphia: 22.9
vs
Atlanta: 15.0
Hits (L5)
+49.2% more
Philadelphia: 11.9
vs
Atlanta: 8.0
Home Runs (L5)
+42.3% more
Philadelphia: 2.8
vs
Atlanta: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
5.5
1
PHI Score
7.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.3
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.9 / 8.0
6.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
2.8 / 1.9
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 4.6
6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases
22.9 / 15.0
6.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59%
97-67
46%
77-90
49%
80-84
54%
90-78
ATS
65%
107-57
57%
96-71
51%
83-81
52%
87-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
53%
83-73-11
51%
78-76-9
49%
76-80-11
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