PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
59-76 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
75-60 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Justin Slaten
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | None-None | 2.05 | -- | 6.0 | 6 |
| Justin Slaten | None-None | 3.33 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.05 Ldr
ERA
3.33
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
38%
RED SOX
62%
PIRATES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.0%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.2%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.23
PITTSBURGH
Boston
4.74
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
3
PITTSBURGH
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 16, 2026
BOS @ PIT
3 - 8
Aug 15, 2026
BOS @ PIT
4 - 0
Aug 14, 2026
BOS @ PIT
4 - 8
Aug 31, 2025
PIT @ BOS
2 - 5
Aug 30, 2025
PIT @ BOS
10 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.734
▲
OPS
.409
186
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+81.0% more
Boston: 1.7
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+29.9% more
Boston: 14.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 11.2
Hits (L5)
+21.3% more
Boston: 8.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 6.6
Errors (L5)
+9.0% more
Boston: 0.4
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.2
4
BOS Score
4.7
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.0 / 6.6
9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.9
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 9.3
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 11.2
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.5
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
PIT
BOS
PIT
ML
50%
80-80
52%
82-77
47%
76-87
52%
85-78
ATS
58%
93-67
54%
86-73
48%
79-84
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
72-83-5
47%
72-81-6
47%
74-83-6
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
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