Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Twins SD @ MIN

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

75-59  |  Road

4
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 8:10 PM ET
Target Field
View Odds Details →

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

60-73  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kody Funderburk
STARTING PITCHER

Kody Funderburk

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yuki Matsui None-None 4.44 -- 1.0 1
Kody Funderburk None-None 4.40 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.44 ERA Ldr 4.40
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
61%
📊
TWINS
39%
PADRES --
TWINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Minnesota)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 TwinsMIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

41.2%

Twins Cover

58.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

SD By 1-2 runs

16.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

10.9%

MIN By 1-2 runs

19.5%

MIN By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.85
SAN DIEGO
4.74
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
5
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Twins Win
39% Win Prob
D
Sim Twins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Twins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 MIN @ SD 1 - 8
Aug 22, 2026 MIN @ SD 5 - 7
Aug 21, 2026 MIN @ SD 2 - 6
Aug 31, 2025 SD @ MIN 2 - 7
Aug 30, 2025 SD @ MIN 12 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Minnesota MIN
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.925 ▲
OPS
.720
4
Home Runs
▲ 187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4575.0% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +157.4% more
Minnesota: 2.6 vs San Diego: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +28.0% more
Minnesota: 17.8 vs San Diego: 13.9
Runs per Game (Season) +24.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Minnesota: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 3.9 4
MIN Score 4.7 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.8 / 8.6 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.6 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.7 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 17.8 / 13.9 17.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.2 / 3.2 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
90%MONEY10%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
MIN
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
SD
MIN
SD
ML
52% 84-78
51% 85-83
50% 80-81
51% 85-82
ATS
59% 95-67
54% 91-77
59% 95-66
55% 92-75
TTL
51% 78-75-9
51% 82-80-6
53% 80-72-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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