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ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

61-72  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 6:45 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

76-57  |  Home

19
Probable Pitchers
Michael Harris II
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Harris II

#23 | Center Field
@
Aaron Nola
STARTING PITCHER

Aaron Nola

#27 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Harris II None-None -- -- -- --
Aaron Nola None-None 6.47 -- 6.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 6.47
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
39%
📊
PHILLIES
61%
BRAVES --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Philadelphia)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

49.0%

Phillies Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
6.24
ATLANTA
6.34
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Phillies (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 12.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 1, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 6
Sep 30, 2026 PHI @ ATL 4 - 3
Sep 29, 2026 PHI @ ATL 3 - 5
Sep 13, 2026 PHI @ ATL 9 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 PHI @ ATL 2 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
Philadelphia PHI
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .438
.757 ▲
OPS
.724
1
Home Runs
▲ 3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +73.5% more
Philadelphia: 9.3 vs Atlanta: 5.4
Errors (L5) +14.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Walks (L5) +12.5% more
Philadelphia: 3.1 vs Atlanta: 2.7
Batting Avg (Season) +1.4%
Philadelphia: 24.7% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 6.2 4
PHI Score 6.3 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 8.9 20.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 2.4 7.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 5.4 6.0 / 3.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 18.0 46.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.7 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
59% 97-67
46% 77-90
49% 80-84
54% 90-78
ATS
65% 107-57
57% 96-71
51% 83-81
52% 87-81
TTL
57% 88-67-9
53% 83-73-11
51% 78-76-9
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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