NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
73-60 | Road
10
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
48-85 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Fernando Cruz
#63 | RP@
STARTING PITCHER
Davis Martin
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Cruz | None-None | 2.86 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Davis Martin | None-None | 4.03 | -- | 3.2 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.86 Ldr
ERA
4.03
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
68%
WHITE SOX
32%
YANKEES
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
18.0%
CHW By 1-2 runs
14.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
8.5%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.79
NEW YORK
Chicago
4.04
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Chicago
6
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
68% Win Prob
C
Sim
White Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim
White Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 30, 2026
NYY @ CHW
1 - 2
Jul 29, 2026
NYY @ CHW
5 - 6
Jul 28, 2026
NYY @ CHW
3 - 2
Jul 27, 2026
NYY @ CHW
9 - 5
Jun 18, 2026
CHW @ NYY
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Chicago
CHW
1
Games Played
1
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
6.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.324
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.415
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.412
1.041
▲
OPS
.826
2
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+64.2% more
New York: 3.4
vs
Chicago: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+35.9% more
New York: 21.4
vs
Chicago: 13.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+33.3% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Chicago: 6.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.2% more
New York: 9.1
vs
Chicago: 6.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
5.8
10
CHW Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.1 / 9.6
5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 3.4
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
6.6 / 9.1
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.7 / 21.4
8.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.8 / 3.7
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CHW
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
NYY
CHW
NYY
ML
49%
81-86
47%
76-85
56%
94-73
52%
85-77
ATS
59%
99-68
59%
95-66
56%
93-74
53%
86-76
TTL
58%
96-69-2
53%
81-73-7
51%
84-81-2
53%
82-72-7
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…