WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
53-79 | Road
2
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
72-60 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Blackburn
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Cavalli | None-None | 5.11 | -- | 2.1 | 4 |
| Paul Blackburn | None-None | 8.07 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.11 Ldr
ERA
8.07
--
WHIP
--
2.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
36%
YANKEES
64%
NATIONALS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.5%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4.1
WASHINGTON
New York
5.48
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Washington
6
WASHINGTON
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Nationals (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 12, 2026
NYY @ WSH
5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026
NYY @ WSH
4 - 2
Jul 10, 2026
NYY @ WSH
5 - 3
Aug 27, 2025
WSH @ NYY
2 - 11
Aug 26, 2025
WSH @ NYY
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
5.07
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.744
OPS
▲
1.041
210
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+137.0% more
New York: 2.1
vs
Washington: 0.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+77.5% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Washington: 5.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+45.1% more
New York: 10.6
vs
Washington: 7.3
Total Bases (L5)
+37.9% more
New York: 16.1
vs
Washington: 11.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.1
2
NYY Score
5.5
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 7.9
13.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.7
6.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 7.3
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 11.7
32.0 / 10.0
Walks
4.6 / 4.9
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
WSH
NYY
WSH
ML
47%
76-85
57%
92-69
52%
85-77
54%
87-74
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-68
53%
86-76
57%
91-70
TTL
53%
81-73-7
50%
77-78-6
53%
82-72-7
42%
65-90-6
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