TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
64-68 | Road
3
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
65-66 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.03 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.91
ERA
Ldr 3.03
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
49%
GUARDIANS
51%
RAYS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.0%
CLE By 1-2 runs
17.5%
CLE By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.94
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
3.44
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728
▲
OPS
.696
169
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+94.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.5
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+71.7% more
Tampa Bay: 16.1
vs
Cleveland: 4.6
Hits (L5)
+58.1% more
Tampa Bay: 9.1
vs
Cleveland: 3.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.5% more
Tampa Bay: 9.7
vs
Cleveland: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.9
3
CLE Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
3.8 / 9.1
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 9.7
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
4.6 / 16.1
11.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.7
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
49%
80-82
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-66
59%
95-67
55%
90-73
TTL
55%
88-71-2
47%
73-81-9
43%
69-90-2
51%
78-75-10
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