ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
60-72 | Road
12
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
62-70 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Harris II
#23 | Center Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Gusto
#65 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Ryan Gusto | None-None | 5.67 | -- | 3.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
5.67
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
3.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
48%
MARLINS
52%
BRAVES
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.4
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.4 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -2.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
ATL By 3-4 runs
19.0%
MIA By 1-2 runs
12.5%
MIA By 3-4 runs
6.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
6.18
ATLANTA
Miami
3.82
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Miami
6
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.4
D
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
ATL @ MIA
3 - 5
Sep 26, 2026
ATL @ MIA
8 - 3
Sep 25, 2026
ATL @ MIA
0 - 3
Aug 6, 2026
MIA @ ATL
3 - 11
Aug 5, 2026
MIA @ ATL
1 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Miami
MIA
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757
▲
OPS
.727
1
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Atlanta: 0.6
vs
Miami: 0.1
Home Runs (L5)
+43.2% more
Atlanta: 1.1
vs
Miami: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Miami: 4.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.3%
Atlanta: 43.3%
vs
Miami: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
6.2
12
MIA Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.9
5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 5.0
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 13.1
6.0 / 28.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.1
10.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ATL
MIA
ATL
ML
48%
78-84
46%
77-90
55%
88-72
54%
90-78
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
96-71
54%
86-74
52%
87-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
83-73-11
53%
82-73-5
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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Walt Weiss Reveals Why Ronald Acuña Jr. Was DH in Game 3
Shohei Ohtani's Slump Raises Concerns for Dodgers in NLDS