Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Blue Jays MIN @ TOR

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

60-72  |  Road

8
FINAL
Wed, Aug 27 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

77-56  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Jeff Hoffman
STARTING PITCHER

Jeff Hoffman

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Alejandro Kirk
STARTING PITCHER

Alejandro Kirk

#30 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jeff Hoffman None-None 4.69 -- 1.0 1
Alejandro Kirk None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
4.69 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
38%
📊
BLUE JAYS
62%
TWINS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Toronto)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

39.1%

Blue Jays Cover

60.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

MIN By 1-2 runs

16.0%

MIN By 3-4 runs

10.3%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.56
MINNESOTA
5.67
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 TOR @ MIN 3 - 4
May 2, 2026 TOR @ MIN 11 - 4
May 1, 2026 TOR @ MIN 7 - 3
Apr 30, 2026 TOR @ MIN 1 - 7
Apr 12, 2026 MIN @ TOR 8 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720 ▲
OPS
.692
187 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +40.2% more
Toronto: 3.9 vs Minnesota: 2.8
Hits (L5) +40.1% more
Toronto: 10.2 vs Minnesota: 7.3
Strikeouts (L5) +29.2% more
Toronto: 8.7 vs Minnesota: 6.7
Total Bases (L5) +24.7% more
Toronto: 17.1 vs Minnesota: 13.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 4.6 8
TOR Score 5.7 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.7 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.2 / 7.3 12.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.9 4.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 6.7 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.1 / 13.7 26.0 / 26.0
Walks 3.9 / 2.8 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
46% 74-87
52% 84-78
50% 80-80
50% 80-81
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-67
49% 79-81
59% 95-66
TTL
51% 80-76-5
51% 78-75-9
45% 70-85-5
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 25 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 33 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 36 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 44 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 13 hours, 39 minutes ago