PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
58-75 | Road
2
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
65-68 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bubba Chandler
#36 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bubba Chandler | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 4.0 | 3 |
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 2.18 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00 Ldr
ERA
2.18
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
45%
CARDINALS
55%
PIRATES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
30%
Under 0
70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PIT By 3-4 runs
17.8%
STL By 1-2 runs
14.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
8.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.42
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
2.77
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
B
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734
▲
OPS
.691
186
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+36.9% more
Pittsburgh: 16.5
vs
St. Louis: 10.4
Home Runs (L5)
+31.1% more
Pittsburgh: 1.4
vs
St. Louis: 0.9
Hits (L5)
+28.7% more
Pittsburgh: 9.6
vs
St. Louis: 6.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.7% more
Pittsburgh: 11.1
vs
St. Louis: 9.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.4
2
STL Score
2.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.6
4.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 11.1
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.4 / 16.5
4.0 / 4.0
Walks
3.5 / 1.5
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53%
85-74
52%
82-77
52%
84-77
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
72-81-6
50%
76-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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