COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
38-94 | Road
0
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
72-60 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Karros
#12 | Third Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Karros | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 1.49 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
1.49
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
25%
ASTROS
75%
ROCKIES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Colorado)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around COL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COL)
COL By 1-2 runs
18.8%
COL By 3-4 runs
14.3%
HOU By 1-2 runs
18.0%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
3.56
COLORADO
Houston
3.3
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Colorado
8
COLORADO
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockies
Loss
25% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim
Rockies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
COL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
COL @ HOU
1 - 3
Apr 14, 2026
COL @ HOU
6 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 9
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.739
▲
OPS
.582
180
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Colorado: 180.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+40.0% more
Colorado: 4.5
vs
Houston: 2.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+35.3% more
Colorado: 4.6
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+15.7%
Colorado: 73.9%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
3.6
0
HOU Score
3.3
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 6.2
7.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.7
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 6.8
9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 9.6
14.0 / 4.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.5
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
COL
HOU
COL
ML
50%
81-82
60%
97-64
47%
77-87
55%
88-73
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
97-64
55%
90-74
52%
83-78
TTL
45%
70-84-9
60%
93-62-6
45%
69-86-9
50%
77-78-6
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