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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

68-65  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Aug 27 • 8:40 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

76-57  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 6.11 -- 0.2 --
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
6.11 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
44%
📊
DODGERS
56%
REDS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Los Angeles)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

28.9%

Dodgers Cover

71.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

CIN By 1-2 runs

12.9%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.39
CINCINNATI
6.61
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
5
CINCINNATI
4
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Dodgers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 LAD @ CIN 8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 LAD @ CIN 2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026 CIN @ LAD 1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.699
OPS
▲ .762
213 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +139.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.0 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +60.3% more
Los Angeles: 16.8 vs Cincinnati: 10.5
Hits (L5) +21.4% more
Los Angeles: 8.4 vs Cincinnati: 6.9
Runs per Game (Season) +20.2% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.4 1
LAD Score 6.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 6.9 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 9.0 19.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 10.5 10.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.2 6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CIN
LAD
CIN
ML
56% 92-73
55% 88-71
48% 79-87
49% 79-81
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 86-73
43% 72-94
50% 80-80
TTL
48% 77-82-6
53% 81-73-5
44% 70-90-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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