Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Alabama @ Western KY UNA @ WKU

NORTH ALABAMA

NORTH ALABAMAUNA

0-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
View Odds Details →

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

1-0  |  Home

55
Key Game
Jyheam Ingram
KEY GAME

Jyheam Ingram

#44 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jordan Donald
KEY GAME

Jordan Donald

#22 | Linebacker
Player
Jyheam Ingram None-None
Jordan Donald None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH ALABAMA
100%
📊
WESTERN KY
0%
NORTH ALABAMA --
WESTERN KY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Western Kentucky)
North AlabamaUNA (-3.5) 0 Western KYWKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Alabama Cover

29.1%

Western KY Cover

70.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WKU -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WKU)

UNA By 1-6 points

12.4%

UNA By 7-13 points

9.0%

WKU By 1-6 points

16.2%

WKU By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
11.15
NORTH ALABAMA
18.85
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
17
NORTH ALABAMA
45
WESTERN KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Western KY Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Western KY Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Western KY (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
C
Sim Western KY (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 30.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 UNA @ WKU 6 - 55
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +84.1% more
Western Kentucky: 386.5 vs North Alabama: 210.0
First Downs (L5) +58.0% more
Western Kentucky: 20.2 vs North Alabama: 12.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Western Kentucky: 0.5 vs North Alabama: 0.2
Turnovers (L5) +18.5% more
North Alabama: 2.7 vs Western Kentucky: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNA Score 11.2 6
WKU Score 18.9 55
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 12.8 26.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 84.2 / 84.3 164.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.42 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 386.5 / 210.0 563.0 / 258.0
Turnovers 2.2 / 2.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNA
--
WKU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -13.0 ATS +/-: -5.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNA
--
WKU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -13.0 ATS +/-: -5.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UNA
--
WKU
3-3-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WKU
UNA
WKU
UNA
ML
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
67% 4-2
100% 2-0
ATS
33% 2-4
100% 2-0
33% 2-4
100% 2-0
TTL
50% 3-3
100% 2-0
50% 3-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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