Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Nicholls @ Troy NICH @ TROY

NICHOLLS

NICHOLLSNICH

1-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

0-0  |  Home

38
Key Game
Pharrell Harewood
KEY GAME

Pharrell Harewood

#16 | Punter
@
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
Player
Pharrell Harewood None-None
Evan Crenshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NICHOLLS
100%
📊
TROY
0%
NICHOLLS --
TROY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.9
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.9 points (Troy)
NichollsNICH (-3.5) 0 TroyTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nicholls Cover

28.5%

Troy Cover

71.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY -7.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

NICH By 1-6 points

12.2%

NICH By 7-13 points

8.8%

TROY By 1-6 points

16.1%

TROY By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
19.73
NICHOLLS
27.67
TROY
Simulated Score
17
NICHOLLS
38
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Troy Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Troy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.9
C
Sim Troy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 NICH @ TROY 20 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +97.5% more
Troy: 198.1 vs Nicholls: 100.3
Total Yards (L5) +52.0% more
Troy: 421.9 vs Nicholls: 277.6
First Downs (L5) +47.0% more
Troy: 23.2 vs Nicholls: 15.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +20.0% more
Troy: 0.5 vs Nicholls: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NICH Score 19.7 20
TROY Score 27.7 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 15.8 23.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 198.1 / 100.3 272.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.6 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 421.9 / 277.6 416.0 / 249.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.6 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
25%MONEY75%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NICH
--
TROY Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NICH
--
TROY Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
NICH
--
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
NICH
TROY
NICH
ML
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Football Cranks Up Volume to Simulate Penn State's White Out
headtopics 1 day, 22 hours ago
Troy Aikman Stunned by Tyler Shough's Seven-Year College Journey…
themirror 2 days, 22 hours ago
Washington's Self-Inflicted Wounds Prove Costly in 25-21 Loss to…
yahoo 4 days, 21 hours ago
Oregon Loss Puts Lincoln Riley's USC Tenure Under Fresh Scrutiny
yahoo 6 days, 3 hours ago
Matt Leinart Says USC Football Is 'Stuck in Mud' After Oregon Lo…
si 1 week ago