TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
64-67 | Road
0
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
64-66 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Griffin Jax
#22 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Griffin Jax | None-None | 4.97 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 3.09 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.97
ERA
Ldr 3.09
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
GUARDIANS
50%
RAYS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.7%
CLE By 1-2 runs
14.7%
CLE By 3-4 runs
8.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.61
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
2.99
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
B
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728
▲
OPS
.696
169
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+93.8% more
Tampa Bay: 2.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+74.8% more
Tampa Bay: 21.1
vs
Cleveland: 5.3
Hits (L5)
+62.2% more
Tampa Bay: 11.2
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.9% more
Tampa Bay: 10.1
vs
Cleveland: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.6
0
CLE Score
3.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
4.2 / 11.2
3.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.1 / 2.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.5 / 10.1
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
5.3 / 21.1
3.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.6
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
49%
80-82
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-66
59%
95-67
55%
90-73
TTL
55%
88-71-2
47%
73-81-9
43%
69-90-2
51%
78-75-10
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…