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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

53-78  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Aug 26 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

71-60  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Clayton Beeter None-None 6.59 -- 1.0 1
David Bednar None-None 2.55 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
6.59 ERA Ldr 2.55
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
36%
📊
YANKEES
64%
NATIONALS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (New York)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

45.8%

Yankees Cover

54.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

12.3%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.0%

NYY By 3-4 runs

14.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.63
WASHINGTON
5.05
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 NYY @ WSH 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 NYY @ WSH 4 - 2
Jul 10, 2026 NYY @ WSH 5 - 3
Aug 27, 2025 WSH @ NYY 2 - 11
Aug 26, 2025 WSH @ NYY 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.744
OPS
▲ 1.041
210 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +139.6% more
New York: 2.7 vs Washington: 1.1
Runs per Game (Season) +77.5% more
New York: 9.0 vs Washington: 5.1
Total Bases (L5) +45.2% more
New York: 18.2 vs Washington: 12.5
Walks (L5) +25.4% more
New York: 4.9 vs Washington: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.6 1
NYY Score 5.1 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.8 / 7.8 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.7 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 7.9 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 18.2 / 12.5 12.0 / 10.0
Walks 4.9 / 3.9 4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
WSH
NYY
WSH
ML
47% 76-85
57% 92-69
52% 85-77
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-68
53% 86-76
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 81-73-7
50% 77-78-6
53% 82-72-7
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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