MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
59-72 | Road
7
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
77-55 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeff Hoffman
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hoffman | None-None | 4.77 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 2.79 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.77
ERA
Ldr 2.79
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
37%
BLUE JAYS
63%
TWINS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MIN By 1-2 runs
14.9%
MIN By 3-4 runs
9.1%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
4.16
MINNESOTA
Toronto
5.68
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 3, 2026
TOR @ MIN
3 - 4
May 2, 2026
TOR @ MIN
11 - 4
May 1, 2026
TOR @ MIN
7 - 3
Apr 30, 2026
TOR @ MIN
1 - 7
Apr 12, 2026
MIN @ TOR
8 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720
▲
OPS
.692
187
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+29.5% more
Toronto: 8.6
vs
Minnesota: 6.6
Hits (L5)
+29.1% more
Toronto: 8.3
vs
Minnesota: 6.4
Total Bases (L5)
+26.6% more
Toronto: 14.6
vs
Minnesota: 11.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
4.2
7
TOR Score
5.7
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 6.4
14.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 6.6
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 11.6
22.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.9 / 3.7
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
46%
74-87
52%
84-78
50%
80-80
50%
80-81
ATS
56%
90-71
59%
95-67
49%
79-81
59%
95-66
TTL
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-9
45%
70-85-5
53%
80-72-9
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