PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
57-75 | Road
8
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
65-67 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gordon Graceffo
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.35 | -- | 6.0 | 9 |
| Gordon Graceffo | None-None | 5.45 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.35 Ldr
ERA
5.45
--
WHIP
--
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
44%
CARDINALS
56%
PIRATES
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
37%
Under 0
63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.9%
PIT By 3-4 runs
14.5%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
3.71
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
3.4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
4
PITTSBURGH
St. Louis
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Pirates
Win
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Pirates (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
STL @ PIT
1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026
STL @ PIT
5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
STL @ PIT
0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026
PIT @ STL
5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026
PIT @ STL
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734
▲
OPS
.691
186
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+40.8% more
Pittsburgh: 1.5
vs
St. Louis: 0.9
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+22.4% more
Pittsburgh: 16.3
vs
St. Louis: 12.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.6% more
Pittsburgh: 10.1
vs
St. Louis: 8.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
3.7
8
STL Score
3.4
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.7 / 8.8
3.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 10.1
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 16.3
6.0 / 17.0
Walks
4.3 / 1.3
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53%
85-74
52%
82-77
52%
84-77
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
81-82
TTL
46%
68-81-10
47%
72-81-6
50%
76-75-10
50%
79-78-6
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