COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
37-94 | Road
6
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
72-59 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Okert
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 3.94 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Steven Okert | None-None | 2.88 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.94
ERA
Ldr 2.88
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
24%
ASTROS
76%
ROCKIES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
COL By 1-2 runs
16.4%
COL By 3-4 runs
10.8%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
2.87
COLORADO
Houston
3.82
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Colorado
3
COLORADO
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Loss
76% Win Prob
B
Sim
Astros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim
Astros (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
COL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
COL @ HOU
1 - 3
Apr 14, 2026
COL @ HOU
6 - 7
Apr 8, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 9
Apr 7, 2026
HOU @ COL
1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.739
▲
OPS
.582
180
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+99.0% more
Houston: 1.5
vs
Colorado: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+55.4% more
Houston: 14.7
vs
Colorado: 9.4
Hits (L5)
+40.9% more
Houston: 8.8
vs
Colorado: 6.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.2% more
Houston: 8.2
vs
Colorado: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
2.9
6
HOU Score
3.8
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 6.2
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 6.7
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 9.4
10.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.8
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
COL
HOU
COL
ML
50%
81-82
60%
97-64
47%
77-87
55%
88-73
ATS
56%
91-72
60%
97-64
55%
90-74
52%
83-78
TTL
45%
70-84-9
60%
93-62-6
45%
69-86-9
50%
77-78-6
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