SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
74-58 | Road
7
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
71-61 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jeremiah Estrada
#56 | RP@
STARTING PITCHER
Eduard Bazardo
#83 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Estrada | None-None | 3.13 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | None-None | 2.73 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.13
ERA
Ldr 2.73
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
52%
MARINERS
48%
PADRES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
68%
Under 0
32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SD By 1-2 runs
11.2%
SD By 3-4 runs
5.8%
SEA By 1-2 runs
18.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.17
SAN DIEGO
Seattle
6.98
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.8
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
SD @ SEA
8 - 3
May 16, 2026
SD @ SEA
7 - 4
May 15, 2026
SD @ SEA
2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026
SEA @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
SEA @ SD
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.925
▲
OPS
.693
4
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4450.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+33.0% more
Seattle: 10.7
vs
San Diego: 8.1
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Seattle: 0.6
vs
San Diego: 0.4
Walks (L5)
+14.2% more
Seattle: 3.3
vs
San Diego: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.2
7
SEA Score
7.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 7.4
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 8.1
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.7 / 14.3
14.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.9
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SD
SEA
SD
ML
50%
81-81
51%
85-83
52%
85-77
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
98-64
54%
91-77
59%
95-67
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
82-80-6
53%
81-71-10
54%
86-74-6
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