TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
63-67 | Road
9
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
64-65 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Austin Hedges
#27 | Catcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Englert | None-None | 3.98 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
| Austin Hedges | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.98 Ldr
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
49%
GUARDIANS
51%
RAYS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
18.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
14.1%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.1%
CLE By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.75
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
3.57
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 1
Jul 25, 2026
CLE @ TB
0 - 3
Jul 24, 2026
CLE @ TB
3 - 11
Apr 29, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 3
Apr 28, 2026
TB @ CLE
1 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.19
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.728
▲
OPS
.696
169
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+88.8% more
Tampa Bay: 1.9
vs
Cleveland: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+60.4% more
Tampa Bay: 17.6
vs
Cleveland: 7.0
Hits (L5)
+45.2% more
Tampa Bay: 9.8
vs
Cleveland: 5.4
Errors (L5)
+30.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8
vs
Cleveland: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.8
9
CLE Score
3.6
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.4 / 9.8
2.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 1.9
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 8.6
5.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
7.0 / 17.6
2.0 / 28.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.8
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TB
CLE
TB
ML
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
49%
80-82
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-66
59%
95-67
55%
90-73
TTL
55%
88-71-2
47%
73-81-9
43%
69-90-2
51%
78-75-10
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