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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

53-77  |  Road

5
FINAL
Mon, Aug 25 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

70-60  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
PJ Poulin
STARTING PITCHER

PJ Poulin

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Cam Schlittler
STARTING PITCHER

Cam Schlittler

#31 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
PJ Poulin None-None 1.64 -- 1.0 --
Cam Schlittler None-None 2.76 -- 6.0 8
None-None W-L None-None
1.64 Ldr ERA 2.76
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
37%
📊
YANKEES
63%
NATIONALS --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

39.9%

Yankees Cover

60.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.32
WASHINGTON
5.34
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Yankees (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Nationals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 12, 2026 NYY @ WSH 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 NYY @ WSH 4 - 2
Jul 10, 2026 NYY @ WSH 5 - 3
Aug 27, 2025 WSH @ NYY 2 - 11
Aug 26, 2025 WSH @ NYY 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
New York NYY
162 ▲
Games Played
1
5.07
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.321
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.423
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.744
OPS
▲ 1.041
210 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +115.5% more
New York: 2.5 vs Washington: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season) +77.5% more
New York: 9.0 vs Washington: 5.1
Errors (L5) +26.0% more
New York: 0.8 vs Washington: 0.5
Walks (L5) +25.7% more
New York: 4.8 vs Washington: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.3 5
NYY Score 5.3 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 7.2 12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 1.2 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 7.9 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 12.8 23.0 / 12.0
Walks 4.8 / 3.9 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
WSH
NYY
WSH
ML
47% 76-85
57% 92-69
52% 85-77
54% 87-74
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-68
53% 86-76
57% 91-70
TTL
53% 81-73-7
50% 77-78-6
53% 82-72-7
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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