Home / MLB Projections MLB / Twins @ Blue Jays MIN @ TOR

MINNESOTA

TWINSMIN

59-71  |  Road

4
FINAL
Mon, Aug 25 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

76-55  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Tommy Nance
STARTING PITCHER

Tommy Nance

#35 | Relief Pitcher
@
Max Scherzer
STARTING PITCHER

Max Scherzer

#31 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tommy Nance None-None 0.96 -- 1.0 --
Max Scherzer None-None 3.82 -- 6.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
0.96 Ldr ERA 3.82
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
38%
📊
BLUE JAYS
62%
TWINS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
TwinsMIN (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Twins Cover

31.0%

Blue Jays Cover

69.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

MIN By 1-2 runs

13.6%

MIN By 3-4 runs

7.9%

TOR By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TOR By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.88
MINNESOTA
5.86
TORONTO
Simulated Score
3
MINNESOTA
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 3, 2026 TOR @ MIN 3 - 4
May 2, 2026 TOR @ MIN 11 - 4
May 1, 2026 TOR @ MIN 7 - 3
Apr 30, 2026 TOR @ MIN 1 - 7
Apr 12, 2026 MIN @ TOR 8 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota MIN
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.720 ▲
OPS
.692
187 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +53.4% more
Toronto: 9.9 vs Minnesota: 6.4
Home Runs (L5) +13.9% more
Toronto: 1.2 vs Minnesota: 1.0
Batting Avg (Season) +0.2%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Minnesota: 24.5%
Home Runs (Season) +18.7% more
Minnesota: 187.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 3.9 4
TOR Score 5.9 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 7.1 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.0 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 6.4 6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 11.8 19.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.1 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
15%MONEY85%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1% Total +/-: +1.0
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIN
TOR
MIN
ML
46% 74-87
52% 84-78
50% 80-80
50% 80-81
ATS
56% 90-71
59% 95-67
49% 79-81
59% 95-66
TTL
51% 80-76-5
51% 78-75-9
45% 70-85-5
53% 80-72-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 42 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 50 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 53 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 56 minutes ago