Home / MLB Projections MLB / Pirates @ Cardinals PIT @ STL

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

57-74  |  Road

6
FINAL
Mon, Aug 25 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

64-67  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Yohan Ramirez
STARTING PITCHER

Yohan Ramirez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Riley O'Brien
STARTING PITCHER

Riley O'Brien

#61 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yohan Ramirez None-None 5.56 -- 2.0 5
Riley O'Brien None-None 1.73 -- 1.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
5.56 ERA Ldr 1.73
-- WHIP --
2.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.2
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
45%
📊
CARDINALS
55%
PIRATES --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Pittsburgh)
PiratesPIT (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pirates Cover

56.7%

Cardinals Cover

43.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

PIT By 1-2 runs

19.3%

PIT By 3-4 runs

15.4%

STL By 1-2 runs

17.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.05
PITTSBURGH
3.38
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
PITTSBURGH
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pirates Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pirates (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim Cardinals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 STL @ PIT 1 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 STL @ PIT 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 STL @ PIT 0 - 2
Aug 30, 2026 PIT @ STL 5 - 4
Aug 29, 2026 PIT @ STL 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh PIT
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.73 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.253 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.330 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.404 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.734 ▲
OPS
.691
186 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +33.6% more
Pittsburgh: 1.3 vs St. Louis: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +29.0% more
Pittsburgh: 15.5 vs St. Louis: 11.0
Strikeouts (L5) +14.7% more
Pittsburgh: 9.7 vs St. Louis: 8.3
Hits (L5) +13.3% more
Pittsburgh: 8.8 vs St. Louis: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 4.1 6
STL Score 3.4 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.6 / 8.8 11.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.7 10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.0 / 15.5 16.0 / 18.0
Walks 4.5 / 1.5 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
PIT
STL
PIT
ML
53% 85-74
52% 82-77
52% 84-77
52% 85-78
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 86-73
53% 85-76
50% 81-82
TTL
46% 68-81-10
47% 72-81-6
50% 76-75-10
50% 79-78-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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