SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
74-57 | Road
6
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
70-61 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Munoz
#75 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 4.47 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Andres Munoz | None-None | 1.41 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.47
ERA
Ldr 1.41
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
53%
MARINERS
47%
PADRES
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
SD By 1-2 runs
14.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
8.8%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
4.61
SAN DIEGO
Seattle
6.25
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Mariners (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 17, 2026
SD @ SEA
8 - 3
May 16, 2026
SD @ SEA
7 - 4
May 15, 2026
SD @ SEA
2 - 0
Apr 16, 2026
SEA @ SD
2 - 5
Apr 15, 2026
SEA @ SD
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Seattle
SEA
2
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.925
▲
OPS
.693
4
Home Runs
▲
182
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4450.0% more
Seattle: 182.0
vs
San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+105.0% more
Seattle: 1.7
vs
San Diego: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+39.4% more
Seattle: 3.9
vs
San Diego: 2.8
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Seattle: 0.4
vs
San Diego: 0.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
4.6
6
SEA Score
6.3
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.5 / 6.1
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.7
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 8.6
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.1 / 9.9
18.0 / 23.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.8
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
SD
SEA
SD
ML
50%
81-81
51%
85-83
52%
85-77
51%
85-82
ATS
60%
98-64
54%
91-77
59%
95-67
55%
92-75
TTL
56%
85-67-10
51%
82-80-6
53%
81-71-10
54%
86-74-6
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