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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

68-63  |  Road

0
FINAL
Mon, Aug 25 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

74-57  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Sam Moll
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Moll

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sam Moll None-None 6.35 -- 0.2 --
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.95 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.35 ERA Ldr 2.95
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
45%
📊
DODGERS
55%
REDS --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cincinnati)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

55.2%

Dodgers Cover

44.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CIN By 3-4 runs

15.0%

LAD By 1-2 runs

17.4%

LAD By 3-4 runs

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
5.99
CINCINNATI
5.47
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
6
CINCINNATI
3
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Reds (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 17, 2026 LAD @ CIN 8 - 2
Sep 16, 2026 LAD @ CIN 2 - 6
Sep 15, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 0
Sep 14, 2026 LAD @ CIN 4 - 1
Sep 9, 2026 CIN @ LAD 1 - 14
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
Los Angeles LAD
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .424
.699
OPS
▲ .762
213 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +95.3% more
Cincinnati: 1.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.1
Strikeouts (L5) +42.9% more
Cincinnati: 11.7 vs Los Angeles: 6.7
Hits (L5) +21.9% more
Cincinnati: 8.8 vs Los Angeles: 6.9
Home Runs (Season) +4.2% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Los Angeles: 204.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 6.0 0
LAD Score 5.5 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.9 / 8.8 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 0.5 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.7 / 11.7 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 13.3 21.0 / 4.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.6 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
CIN
LAD
CIN
ML
56% 92-73
55% 88-71
48% 79-87
49% 79-81
ATS
59% 98-67
54% 86-73
43% 72-94
50% 80-80
TTL
48% 77-82-6
53% 81-73-5
44% 70-90-6
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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