Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

73-57  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Aug 24 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

74-56  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Yuki Matsui
STARTING PITCHER

Yuki Matsui

#1 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Scott None-None 4.05 -- 1.0 --
Yuki Matsui None-None 4.66 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.05 Ldr ERA 4.66
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
49%
📊
PADRES
51%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Los Angeles)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

51.7%

Padres Cover

48.3%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

14.1%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

13.1%

AI Model Projected Score
5.57
LOS ANGELES
5.4
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
C
Sim Dodgers (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +58.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.2 vs San Diego: 0.5
Walks (L5) +32.2% more
Los Angeles: 3.3 vs San Diego: 2.2
Strikeouts (L5) +38.7% more
San Diego: 8.4 vs Los Angeles: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.6 8
SD Score 5.4 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 5.8 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.2 1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 6.0 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 10.7 10.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.3 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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