Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Merrimack @ Kent State MRMK @ KENT

MERRIMACK

MERRIMACKMRMK

0-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 12:00 PM ET
Dix Stadium
View Odds Details →

KENT STATE

KENT STATEKENT

0-0  |  Home

21
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Mike Ryan

#83 | Place kicker
@
Jake Stoeckel
KEY GAME

Jake Stoeckel

#97 | Punter
Player
Mike Ryan None-None
Jake Stoeckel None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MERRIMACK
50%
📊
KENT STATE
50%
MERRIMACK --
KENT STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
25.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 38%
Under 0 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.6
MERRIMACK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.6 points (Merrimack)
MerrimackMRMK (-3.5) 0 Kent StateKENT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Merrimack Cover

70.7%

Kent State Cover

29.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MRMK -7.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRMK)

MRMK By 1-6 points

16.3%

MRMK By 7-13 points

19.5%

KENT By 1-6 points

12.4%

KENT By 7-13 points

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
16.34
MERRIMACK
8.73
KENT STATE
Simulated Score
10
MERRIMACK
38
KENT STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Merrimack Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Kent State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Merrimack (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.6
D
Sim Kent State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 25.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 MRMK @ KENT 17 - 21
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.5% more
Merrimack: 108.9 vs Kent State: 86.6
First Downs (L5) +13.7% more
Merrimack: 13.3 vs Kent State: 11.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Merrimack: 0.3 vs Kent State: 0.2
Turnovers (L5) +81.0% more
Kent State: 1.5 vs Merrimack: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 16.3 17
KENT Score 8.7 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 11.5 / 13.3 15.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 86.6 / 108.9 96.0 / 164.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.3 0.36 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 224.6 / 241.7 305.0 / 340.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
--
KENT Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK
--
KENT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -16.4 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
--
KENT
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KENT
MRMK
KENT
MRMK
ML
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
ATS
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
40% 2-3
0% 0-2
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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