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MISSISSIPPI STATE

MISSISSIPPI STMSST

0-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 12:00 PM ET
M. M. Roberts Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

SOUTHERN MISSUSM

0-0  |  Home

17
Key Game
Ethan Pulliam
KEY GAME

Ethan Pulliam

#8 | Punter
@
Reed Harradine
KEY GAME

Reed Harradine

#96 | Place kicker
Player
Ethan Pulliam None-None
Reed Harradine None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSISSIPPI ST
0%
📊
SOUTHERN MISS
100%
MISSISSIPPI ST --
SOUTHERN MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.3
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.3 points (Mississippi State)
Mississippi StMSST (-3.5) 0 Southern MissUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mississippi St Cover

69.8%

Southern Miss Cover

30.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MSST -7.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MSST By 1-6 points

16.4%

MSST By 7-13 points

19.4%

USM By 1-6 points

12.7%

USM By 7-13 points

9.4%

AI Model Projected Score
17.44
MISSISSIPPI STATE
10.17
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
17
MISSISSIPPI STATE
31
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mississippi St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Southern Miss Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mississippi St (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.3
C
Sim Southern Miss (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 MSST @ USM 34 - 17
Nov 18, 2023 USM @ MSST 20 - 41
Sep 7, 2019 USM @ MSST 15 - 38
Sep 5, 2015 MSST @ USM 34 - 16
Aug 30, 2014 USM @ MSST 0 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +21.6% more
Mississippi State: 350.5 vs Southern Miss: 274.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.8% more
Mississippi State: 123.1 vs Southern Miss: 104.9
First Downs (L5) +10.2% more
Mississippi State: 18.0 vs Southern Miss: 16.2
Time of Possession (L5) +11.0% more
Southern Miss: 0.5 vs Mississippi State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 17.4 34
USM Score 10.2 17
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.2 / 18.0 18.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 104.9 / 123.1 102.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.53 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 274.7 / 350.5 301.0 / 465.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 2.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
USM
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.0 ATS +/-: +6.1
USM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.2 ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.1
USM
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
MSST
USM
MSST
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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