Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / VMI @ Navy VMI @ NAVY

VMI

VMIVMI

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 12:00 PM ET
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NAVY

NAVYNAVY

0-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Ben Shrewsbury
KEY GAME

Ben Shrewsbury

#99 | Place kicker
@
Jacob Carlson
KEY GAME

Jacob Carlson

#11 | Punter
Player
Ben Shrewsbury None-None
Jacob Carlson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VMI
0%
📊
NAVY
100%
VMI --
NAVY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (VMI)
VMIVMI (-3.5) 0 NavyNAVY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

VMI Cover

57.1%

Navy Cover

42.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around VMI -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)

VMI By 1-6 points

16.9%

VMI By 7-13 points

17.2%

NAVY By 1-6 points

15.5%

NAVY By 7-13 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
16.65
VMI
14.15
NAVY
Simulated Score
7
VMI
38
NAVY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI VMI Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Navy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI VMI (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.5
C
Sim Navy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 30.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 VMI @ NAVY 7 - 52
Oct 11, 2014 VMI @ NAVY 14 - 51
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.7% more
VMI: 1.4 vs Navy: 0.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +433.0% more
Navy: 237.7 vs VMI: 44.6
Total Yards (L5) +77.4% more
Navy: 338.2 vs VMI: 190.6
First Downs (L5) +35.4% more
Navy: 14.2 vs VMI: 10.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VMI Score 16.7 7
NAVY Score 14.2 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.2 / 10.5 26.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 237.7 / 44.6 464.0 / 15.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.77 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 338.2 / 190.6 556.0 / 212.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VMI
--
NAVY Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VMI
--
NAVY
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: -7.8
⚖️ Over/Under
VMI
--
NAVY
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NAVY
VMI
NAVY
VMI
ML
25% 1-3
100% 2-0
100% 4-0
100% 2-0
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
TTL
0% 0-4
0% 0-2
25% 1-3
0% 0-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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