TOLEDO
TOLEDOTOL
0-0 | Road
16
KENTUCKY
KENTUCKYUK
0-0 | Home
24
Key Game
KEY GAME
Emilio Duran
#36 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Jacob Kauwe
#91 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Emilio Duran | None-None |
| Jacob Kauwe | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TOLEDO
100%
KENTUCKY
0%
TOLEDO
--
KENTUCKY
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.7
KENTUCKY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.7 points (Kentucky)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UK -7.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UK)
TOL By 1-6 points
12.4%
TOL By 7-13 points
9.0%
UK By 1-6 points
16.2%
UK By 7-13 points
19.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toledo
19.69
TOLEDO
Kentucky
27.38
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
Toledo
17
TOLEDO
Kentucky
31
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Kentucky
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Kentucky
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Kentucky (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.7
C
Sim
Kentucky (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 47.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2025
TOL @ UK
16 - 24
Aug 31, 2019
TOL @ UK
24 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+84.9% more
Kentucky: 3.1
vs
Toledo: 1.7
Rushing Yards (L5)
+21.8% more
Kentucky: 136.6
vs
Toledo: 112.2
Total Yards (L5)
+10.4% more
Toledo: 380.1
vs
Kentucky: 340.6
First Downs (L5)
+10.0% more
Toledo: 19.5
vs
Kentucky: 17.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOL Score
19.7
16
UK Score
27.4
24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.6 / 19.5
17.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards
136.6 / 112.2
220.0 / 59.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.2 / 0.3
0.53 / 0.41
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.4
0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards
340.6 / 380.1
305.0 / 329.0
Turnovers
3.1 / 1.7
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOL
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +6.2
UK
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 7.8
ATS +/-: +5.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOL
2-2-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 16.8
ATS +/-: +6.2
UK
Advantage
4-1-0
(80.0%)
Margin: 7.8
ATS +/-: +5.0
⚖️ Over/Under
TOL
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0%
Total +/-: +17.3
UK
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
TOL
UK
TOL
ML
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
20%
1-4
100%
5-0
ATS
20%
1-4
25%
1-3-1
0%
0-5
50%
2-2-1
TTL
60%
3-2
100%
5-0
80%
4-1
100%
5-0
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