Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Holy Cross @ N Illinois HC @ NIU

HOLY CROSS

HOLY CROSSHC

0-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 3:30 PM ET
Huskie Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

N ILLINOISNIU

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19
Key Game
Ethan Moss
KEY GAME

Ethan Moss

#49 | Place kicker
@
Jay'shon Thomas
KEY GAME

Jay'shon Thomas

#18 | Defensive End
Player
Ethan Moss None-None
Jay'shon Thomas None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HOLY CROSS
100%
📊
N ILLINOIS
0%
HOLY CROSS --
N ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.8
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.8 points (Northern Illinois)
Holy CrossHC (-3.5) 0 N IllinoisNIU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Holy Cross Cover

10.2%

N Illinois Cover

89.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NIU -17.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NIU)

HC By 1-6 points

5.4%

HC By 7-13 points

2.9%

NIU By 1-6 points

10.1%

NIU By 7-13 points

17.0%

AI Model Projected Score
13.15
HOLY CROSS
30.96
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
17
HOLY CROSS
31
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI N Illinois Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim N Illinois Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI N Illinois (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.8
C
Sim N Illinois (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 HC @ NIU 17 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.5% more
Northern Illinois: 179.0 vs Holy Cross: 140.4
First Downs (L5) +25.4% more
Northern Illinois: 21.4 vs Holy Cross: 17.1
Total Yards (L5) +10.8% more
Northern Illinois: 351.1 vs Holy Cross: 316.9
Time of Possession (L5) +9.0% more
Northern Illinois: 0.6 vs Holy Cross: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HC Score 13.2 17
NIU Score 31.0 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 17.1 17.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 179.0 / 140.4 178.0 / 62.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.29 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 351.1 / 316.9 287.0 / 217.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HC
--
NIU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HC
--
NIU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -22.5 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
HC
--
NIU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NIU
HC
NIU
HC
ML
75% 3-1
100% 1-0
75% 3-1
100% 1-0
ATS
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
25% 1-3
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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