Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Chattanooga @ Memphis UTC @ MEM

CHATTANOOGA

CHATTANOOGAUTC

0-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 4:30 PM ET
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

MEMPHISMEM

0-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Heath Jehu
KEY GAME

Heath Jehu

#16 | Punter
@
Donovan Mathena
KEY GAME

Donovan Mathena

#33 | Linebacker
Player
Heath Jehu None-None
Donovan Mathena None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CHATTANOOGA
100%
📊
MEMPHIS
0%
CHATTANOOGA --
MEMPHIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.7
MEMPHIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.7 points (Memphis)
ChattanoogaUTC (-3.5) 0 MemphisMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Chattanooga Cover

20.1%

Memphis Cover

79.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MEM -11.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MEM)

UTC By 1-6 points

9.5%

UTC By 7-13 points

6.1%

MEM By 1-6 points

14.3%

MEM By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
19.04
CHATTANOOGA
30.76
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
13
CHATTANOOGA
41
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Memphis Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Memphis Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Memphis (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.7
C
Sim Memphis (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 UTC @ MEM 10 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +100.7% more
Memphis: 195.5 vs Chattanooga: 97.4
First Downs (L5) +97.0% more
Memphis: 23.2 vs Chattanooga: 11.8
Total Yards (L5) +81.3% more
Memphis: 465.6 vs Chattanooga: 256.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +27.0% more
Memphis: 0.5 vs Chattanooga: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTC Score 19.0 10
MEM Score 30.8 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 11.8 24.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 195.5 / 97.4 233.0 / 118.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.56 / 0.17
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 465.6 / 256.8 432.0 / 232.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.9 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTC
--
MEM Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTC
--
MEM Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.2 ATS +/-: +6.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTC
--
MEM
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
UTC
MEM
UTC
ML
80% 4-1
-- 0-0
80% 4-1
-- 0-0
ATS
60% 3-2
-- 0-0
40% 2-3
-- 0-0
TTL
40% 2-3
-- 0-0
60% 3-2
-- 0-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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