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COASTAL CAROLINA

COASTALCCU

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 6:00 PM ET
Scott Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

0-0  |  Home

48
Key Game
Ibrahim Diawara
KEY GAME

Ibrahim Diawara

#1 | Defensive End
@
Elijah Slibeck
KEY GAME

Elijah Slibeck

#99 | Punter
Player
Ibrahim Diawara None-None
Elijah Slibeck None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COASTAL
100%
📊
VIRGINIA
0%
COASTAL --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Virginia)
CoastalCCU (-3.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Coastal Cover

45.5%

Virginia Cover

54.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

CCU By 1-6 points

15.9%

CCU By 7-13 points

14.1%

UVA By 1-6 points

16.8%

UVA By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17.29
COASTAL CAROLINA
18.89
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
31
COASTAL CAROLINA
27
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Virginia Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Coastal Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Virginia (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.6
C
Sim Coastal (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 CCU @ UVA 7 - 48
Sep 21, 2024 UVA @ CCU 43 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +38.0% more
Coastal Carolina: 162.1 vs Virginia: 100.5
Total Yards (L5) +19.5% more
Coastal Carolina: 346.4 vs Virginia: 279.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Coastal Carolina: 0.4 vs Virginia: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CCU Score 17.3 7
UVA Score 18.9 48
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.4 / 18.1 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 100.5 / 162.1 164.0 / 91.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.07
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 279.0 / 346.4 454.0 / 254.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.8 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CCU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-: -1.2
UVA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
CCU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -3.9
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
CCU
UVA
CCU
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3-1
0% 0-5
50% 2-2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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