AUSTIN PEAY
AUSTIN PEAYAPSU
0-0 | Road
34
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
MTSUMTSU
0-0 | Home
14
Key Game
KEY GAME
Logan Leftrick
#49 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Ashton Logan
#92 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Logan Leftrick | None-None |
| Ashton Logan | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
AUSTIN PEAY
0%
MTSU
100%
AUSTIN PEAY
--
MTSU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Austin Peay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around APSU -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)
APSU By 1-6 points
15.3%
APSU By 7-13 points
19.7%
MTSU By 1-6 points
10.8%
MTSU By 7-13 points
7.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Austin Peay
20.88
AUSTIN PEAY
Middle Tennessee
10.92
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
Austin Peay
17
AUSTIN PEAY
Middle Tennessee
38
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Austin Peay
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
MTSU
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Austin Peay (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
C
Sim
MTSU (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 31.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 30, 2025
APSU @ MTSU
34 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+39.0% more
Austin Peay: 2.3
vs
Middle Tennessee: 1.4
Total Yards (L5)
+61.4% more
Middle Tennessee: 376.4
vs
Austin Peay: 233.2
Rushing Yards (L5)
+48.9% more
Middle Tennessee: 115.1
vs
Austin Peay: 77.4
First Downs (L5)
+33.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 19.1
vs
Austin Peay: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APSU Score
20.9
34
MTSU Score
10.9
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.1 / 14.3
13.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards
115.1 / 77.4
44.0 / 150.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.41
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.36 / 0.64
Total Yards
376.4 / 233.2
153.0 / 343.0
Turnovers
1.4 / 2.3
0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
--
MTSU
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
--
MTSU
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -7.2
ATS +/-: -3.0
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
--
MTSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0%
Total +/-: -3.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
APSU
MTSU
APSU
ML
100%
5-0
100%
2-0
100%
5-0
100%
2-0
ATS
60%
3-2
50%
1-1
40%
2-3
50%
1-1
TTL
60%
3-2
100%
2-0
60%
3-2
100%
2-0
