Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UTEP @ Utah State UTEP @ USU

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

0-0  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:30 PM ET
Maverik Stadium
View Odds Details →

UTAH STATE

UTAH STATEUSU

0-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
@
Chika Ebunoha
KEY GAME

Chika Ebunoha

#12 | Safety
Player
Carlos Arreola None-None
Chika Ebunoha None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UTEP
100%
📊
UTAH STATE
0%
UTEP --
UTAH STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.5
UTAH STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.5 points (Utah State)
UTEPUTEP (-3.5) 0 Utah StateUSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UTEP Cover

3.4%

Utah State Cover

96.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USU -25.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USU)

UTEP By 1-6 points

2.1%

UTEP By 7-13 points

0.8%

USU By 1-6 points

5.0%

USU By 7-13 points

10.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.61
UTEP
45.1
UTAH STATE
Simulated Score
20
UTEP
31
UTAH STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Utah State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Utah State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Utah State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.5
C
Sim Utah State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 64.7
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 UTEP @ USU 16 - 28
Dec 20, 2014 USU @ UTEP 21 - 6
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +117.7% more
Utah State: 265.4 vs UTEP: 121.9
Total Yards (L5) +57.1% more
Utah State: 485.3 vs UTEP: 308.9
First Downs (L5) +49.0% more
Utah State: 24.3 vs UTEP: 16.3
Turnovers (L5) +32.5% more
Utah State: 2.0 vs UTEP: 1.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTEP Score 19.6 16
USU Score 45.1 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.3 / 16.3 18.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 265.4 / 121.9 127.0 / 103.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.17 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 485.3 / 308.9 360.0 / 284.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.5 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
USU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
USU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -11.0 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
USU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -14.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USU
UTEP
USU
UTEP
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-5
80% 4-1
0% 0-5
TTL
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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