Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Abilene Chrstn @ Tulsa ACU @ TLSA

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

ABILENE CHRSTNACU

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Chapman Stadium
View Odds Details →

TULSA

TULSATLSA

0-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Hugo Nash
KEY GAME

Hugo Nash

#33 | Punter
@
Elijah Green
KEY GAME

Elijah Green

#7 | Cornerback
Player
Hugo Nash None-None
Elijah Green None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ABILENE CHRSTN
50%
📊
TULSA
50%
ABILENE CHRSTN --
TULSA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-19.5
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +19.5 points (Abilene Christian)
Abilene ChrstnACU (-3.5) 0 TulsaTLSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Abilene Chrstn Cover

91.8%

Tulsa Cover

8.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ACU -19.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

ACU By 1-6 points

8.9%

ACU By 7-13 points

15.8%

TLSA By 1-6 points

4.5%

TLSA By 7-13 points

2.3%

AI Model Projected Score
35.93
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
16.47
TULSA
Simulated Score
13
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
41
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Abilene Chrstn Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Tulsa Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Abilene Chrstn (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.5
D
Sim Tulsa (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 ACU @ TLSA 7 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Abilene Christian: 0.4 vs Tulsa: 0.3
Turnovers (L5) +166.1% more
Tulsa: 2.9 vs Abilene Christian: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.9% more
Tulsa: 127.5 vs Abilene Christian: 112.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 35.9 7
TLSA Score 16.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 20.3 25.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 127.5 / 112.0 263.0 / 120.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.42 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 394.2 / 415.1 499.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 2.9 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU
--
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
--
TLSA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
--
TLSA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
ACU
TLSA
ACU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 2-0
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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