Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Michigan @ Texas St EMU @ TXST

EASTERN MICHIGAN

E MICHIGANEMU

0-0  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 8:00 PM ET
UFCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

0-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Rudy Kessinger
KEY GAME

Rudy Kessinger

#46 | Place kicker
@
Jake Simpson
KEY GAME

Jake Simpson

#88 | Tight End
Player
Rudy Kessinger None-None
Jake Simpson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E MICHIGAN
0%
📊
TEXAS ST
100%
E MICHIGAN --
TEXAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
EASTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Eastern Michigan)
E MichiganEMU (-3.5) 0 Texas StTXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Michigan Cover

58.5%

Texas St Cover

41.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around EMU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (EMU)

EMU By 1-6 points

17.0%

EMU By 7-13 points

17.5%

TXST By 1-6 points

15.3%

TXST By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
31.95
EASTERN MICHIGAN
28.94
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
EASTERN MICHIGAN
31
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI E Michigan Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Texas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI E Michigan (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Texas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 60.9
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 EMU @ TXST 27 - 52
Sep 25, 2021 TXST @ EMU 21 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.6% more
Eastern Michigan: 2.6 vs Texas State: 2.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +56.1% more
Texas State: 225.5 vs Eastern Michigan: 144.5
First Downs (L5) +43.5% more
Texas State: 26.7 vs Eastern Michigan: 18.6
Total Yards (L5) +40.0% more
Texas State: 506.7 vs Eastern Michigan: 362.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EMU Score 32.0 27
TXST Score 28.9 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.7 / 18.6 30.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 225.5 / 144.5 392.0 / 143.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.7 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 506.7 / 362.0 606.0 / 391.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 2.6 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EMU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
EMU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -3.3
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
EMU
TXST
EMU
ML
60% 3-2
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
ATS
20% 1-4
50% 3-3
20% 1-4
33% 2-4
TTL
40% 2-3
67% 4-2
60% 3-2
50% 3-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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