Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / GA Southern @ Fresno St GASO @ FRES

GEORGIA SOUTHERN

GA SOUTHERNGASO

0-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 9:30 PM ET
Valley Children's Stadium
View Odds Details →

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

0-1  |  Home

42
Key Game
Tripp Bryant
KEY GAME

Tripp Bryant

#95 | Place kicker
@
Jahlil McClain
KEY GAME

Jahlil McClain

#1 | Wide Receiver
Player
Tripp Bryant None-None
Jahlil McClain None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GA SOUTHERN
0%
📊
FRESNO ST
100%
GA SOUTHERN --
FRESNO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (Georgia Southern)
GA SouthernGASO (-3.5) 0 Fresno StFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

GA Southern Cover

59.4%

Fresno St Cover

40.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GASO -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GASO)

GASO By 1-6 points

17.0%

GASO By 7-13 points

17.7%

FRES By 1-6 points

15.1%

FRES By 7-13 points

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
25.97
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
22.63
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
24
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
31
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI GA Southern Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Fresno St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI GA Southern (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.3
C
Sim Fresno St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 GASO @ FRES 14 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.0% more
Georgia Southern: 148.3 vs Fresno State: 72.7
Turnovers (L5) +37.6% more
Georgia Southern: 2.7 vs Fresno State: 1.7
First Downs (L5) +29.0% more
Georgia Southern: 21.9 vs Fresno State: 15.5
Total Yards (L5) +24.1% more
Georgia Southern: 366.5 vs Fresno State: 278.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 26.0 14
FRES Score 22.6 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.5 / 21.9 29.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 72.7 / 148.3 351.0 / 84.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 278.0 / 366.5 527.0 / 242.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 2.7 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +2.8
FRES
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -4.9
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
GASO
FRES
GASO
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-5
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 6 hours, 40 minutes ago
Missouri Freshman Lineman Johnnie DJ Jones Awaits Heart Transpla…
news29 1 day, 18 hours ago
Josh Heupel Stays Silent on Tennessee's Starting QB for Arkansas…
yahoo 3 days, 6 hours ago
Georgia Holds No. 2 AP Ranking as Showdown with Alabama Looms
yahoo 3 days, 12 hours ago
Brandon Graham's Cryptic Take on Lane Johnson's Absence Raises E…
yahoo 3 days, 19 hours ago