Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hawai'i @ Arizona HAW @ ARIZ

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

1-0  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 10:30 PM ET
Arizona Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

ARIZONAARIZ

0-0  |  Home

40
Key Game
Ha'aheo Dela Cruz
KEY GAME

Ha'aheo Dela Cruz

#90 | Defensive Lineman
@
Michael Salgado-Medina
KEY GAME

Michael Salgado-Medina

#19 | Place kicker
Player
Ha'aheo Dela Cruz None-None
Michael Salgado-Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWAI'I
100%
📊
ARIZONA
0%
HAWAI'I --
ARIZONA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
38.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Arizona)
Hawai'iHAW (-3.5) 0 ArizonaARIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawai'i Cover

49.7%

Arizona Cover

50.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARIZ -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARIZ)

HAW By 1-6 points

16.4%

HAW By 7-13 points

15.3%

ARIZ By 1-6 points

16.5%

ARIZ By 7-13 points

15.4%

AI Model Projected Score
19.14
HAWAI'I
19.23
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
20
HAWAI'I
34
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arizona Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arizona Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.1
C
Sim Arizona (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 38.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 HAW @ ARIZ 6 - 40
Aug 24, 2019 ARIZ @ HAW 38 - 45
Sep 17, 2016 HAW @ ARIZ 28 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Arizona: 0.5 vs Hawai'i: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +24.7% more
Hawai'i: 384.2 vs Arizona: 289.2
Rushing Yards (L5) +21.8% more
Hawai'i: 95.2 vs Arizona: 74.4
First Downs (L5) +20.8% more
Hawai'i: 21.1 vs Arizona: 16.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 19.1 6
ARIZ Score 19.2 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 21.1 16.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 74.4 / 95.2 183.0 / 67.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 289.2 / 384.2 344.0 / 290.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.5 0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
ARIZ Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
ARIZ
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
ARIZ
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARIZ
HAW
ARIZ
HAW
ML
100% 5-0
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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