Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / App State @ Charlotte APP @ CLT

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

0-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 7:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

0-0  |  Home

11
Key Game
Cary Grant
KEY GAME

Cary Grant

#12 | Defensive Back
@
Bronson Long
KEY GAME

Bronson Long

#95 | Punter
Player
Cary Grant None-None
Bronson Long None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
APP STATE
0%
📊
CHARLOTTE
100%
APP STATE --
CHARLOTTE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (App State)
App StateAPP (-3.5) 0 CharlotteCLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

App State Cover

69.2%

Charlotte Cover

30.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around APP -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

APP By 1-6 points

16.4%

APP By 7-13 points

19.3%

CLT By 1-6 points

12.8%

CLT By 7-13 points

9.6%

AI Model Projected Score
26.09
APP STATE
19.07
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
17
APP STATE
31
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI App State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Charlotte Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI App State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Charlotte (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 CLT @ APP 21 - 26
Aug 29, 2025 APP @ CLT 34 - 11
Sep 12, 2020 CLT @ APP 20 - 35
Sep 7, 2019 CLT @ APP 41 - 56
Sep 8, 2018 APP @ CLT 45 - 9
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +31.0% more
App State: 162.4 vs Charlotte: 112.1
First Downs (L5) +23.8% more
App State: 22.6 vs Charlotte: 17.2
Turnovers (L5) +19.6% more
App State: 1.7 vs Charlotte: 1.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
App State: 0.5 vs Charlotte: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 26.1 34
CLT Score 19.1 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.2 / 22.6 15.0 / 32.0
Rushing Yards 112.1 / 162.4 76.0 / 182.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.5 0.29 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 355.0 / 417.8 218.0 / 586.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.7 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
CLT
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
CLT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
CLT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
APP
CLT
APP
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
80% 4-1
0% 0-4
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
TTL
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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